US Online poker is off to a slow start, falling well short of projections in Delaware, New Jersey and Nevada so far. Of course, one might merely consider these three states to be appetizers in what could become a much larger and more lucrative market – especially if California enters the picture.
Home to 38 million people and a $2.2 trillion economy, California is basically the holy grail among American online poker enthusiasts. A recent study by Academicon and PokerScout predicts that a legal California online poker market could generate between $217 million and $263 million in its first year. By the tenth year, the market could be worth up to $384 million.
The Academicon and PokerScout study also analyzed data on Californians who played at unregulated poker sites from between 2009 and 2010. They found that over 178,000 residents of the Golden State played at these unregulated sites, paying a combined $155 million in rake, which made up 16 percent of the total US market.
Ultimately, though, the size of California’s internet poker market will largely depend on one big factor, which we’ll discuss below.
The implications of California pursuing interstate poker
While California could definitely feature a very large player pool by themselves, they stand to gain far more from participating in interstate poker. Dr. Ingo Fiedler, co-author of the Academicon/PokerScout study, commented on this by saying, “The size of the market depends strongly on the decision to either limit the player pool to in-state residents or participate in a federal or international network of players.”
So far, only Delaware and Nevada have an interstate agreement, and 888 are working on linking the two states through their All American Poker Network (AAPN). However, these two states only feature a combined population of less than 3.7 million people. If California were to enter the picture, it would definitely give US internet poker a massive boost.
A nice side product of this would be other states feeling encouraged to combine player pools. For example, New Jersey chose not to link up with Nevada because they’re looking for partners that also feature online casino games too. However, the idea of combining player pools with a huge state like California would be much more enticing. The same can be said of other states that are moving closer and closer to regulating their online gaming market.
What if California doesn’t link up with other States?
Assuming California doesn’t partner up with other states, they still hold a very good chance of future success. Their market would likely reflect that of Italy’s, which has a $2 trillion economy. Looking at PokerScout’s stats on 24-hour cash game traffic, PokerStars.it averages 1,100 players an hour, iPoker.it has 350 players, International.it has 300 players, and both ActiveGames.it and PeoplesNetwork.it have 280 players a piece.
Doing the math, this makes for a combined pool of 2,310 hourly cash players. Comparing this to New Jersey and Nevada, which have combined hourly pools of 200 players and 160 players respectively, this would easily be America’s largest online poker market.
Of course, all of these projections and comparisons are a bit hasty. After all, California still needs to legalize internet poker first.